Trump Travel Ban & FY2027: What India and China EB Applicants Should Expect

What Backlogged Applicants Need to Know

• The FY reset is the primary driver of large movements near October — this happens every year regardless of policy
• The Trump travel ban does not directly restrict Indian or Chinese nationals from receiving green cards
• Travel ban countries with EB applicants (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) may see delayed processing, which can free up additional visa numbers for spillover
• September and October bulletins are typically when India EB-2 and EB-3 see their biggest advances of the year

What Is the Trump Travel Ban?

In January 2025, the Trump administration issued a broad travel ban suspending entry for nationals of several countries. The list has been expanded and modified over 2025–2026 and currently includes countries such as Afghanistan, Cuba, Haiti, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Russia, Somalia, Sudan, Venezuela, and Yemen, among others.

For employment-based green card purposes, your country of chargeability is your country of birth — not your current citizenship or the passport you hold. Indian and Chinese nationals born in those countries are not affected by the travel ban with respect to their place in the EB queue.

The Visa Number Spillover Mechanism

Congress allocates approximately 140,000 employment-based immigrant visas per fiscal year (October 1 – September 30). No single country can receive more than 7% of those numbers — about 9,800 per year. But there is a spillover system:

1. Within a preference category: If EB-1 numbers go unused worldwide (because all EB-1 countries are current or applicants are unavailable), those unused numbers cascade down to EB-2, and then to EB-3.
2. Cross-category spillover to India and China: Within the India and China per-country allocation, unused EB-1 numbers (because EB-1 India and EB-1 China are not fully subscribed at the final action level) spill into India EB-2 and then EB-3. This is the dominant force behind large India EB-2 advances.
3. Travel ban effect: If nationals of travel ban countries who are in the EB queue cannot have their immigrant visas processed and issued before September 30, those visa numbers return to the pool and increase what is available for spillover. Countries like Russia and Iran do have some EB-2 and EB-3 applicants. While the aggregate number is small relative to the India/China backlog, every additional visa number that reaches spillover helps.

Why October 2026 Matters So Much

The U.S. immigration fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30. At the start of each new fiscal year, the entire annual visa allocation is refreshed. For oversubscribed countries like India and China, this creates a predictable pattern:

• August–September: The State Department aggressively advances Final Action and Filing dates to absorb the remaining FY visa numbers before they expire. India EB-2 and EB-3 typically see their largest single-month advances of the year during these months.
• October–November: The new FY allocation kicks in. Dates may pull back slightly as demand recalibrates, or they may hold and advance further if EB-1 spillover is strong early in the new year.
• FY2027 specifically: With India EB-2 currently at mid-2014 and a large inventory of cases from 2015–2020 waiting, the September 2026 bulletin could see an advance of anywhere from several months to over a year — depending on how aggressively the State Department wants to absorb FY2026 numbers.

Historical moves are illustrative. Actual movements depend on USCIS inventory levels, application rates, and State Department discretion.

China EB-2 and EB-3: Similar Dynamics

China faces the same per-country cap as India and follows the same spillover mechanics. China EB-2 is currently in 2021, and China EB-3 is in mid-2021 — both significantly closer to "Current" than India but still subject to multi-year waits.

The FY2027 reset will apply equally to China EB-2 and EB-3. Given that China EB-2 has been advancing steadily through 2025–2026, it is possible that China EB-2 reaches "Current" or near-current status in FY2027, which would further free up China's per-country allocation and push more spillover toward India EB-2.

Key Signals Heading into FY2027

Here are the indicators to follow over the coming months:

• July 2026 Visa Bulletin (released mid-June): The State Department typically signals end-of-year demand by moving dates aggressively in July. A large India EB-2 advance in July signals a strong FY-end run.
• August 2026 Bulletin: Often the biggest single-month move of the year. Watch for India EB-2 advances of 6–18+ months.
• USCIS Chart B determination (monthly): If USCIS authorizes filing under Chart B, applicants can file I-485 before their Final Action date is reached — a critical window for those close to the cutoff.
• Travel ban litigation: Court rulings that expand or contract the ban's scope in 2026 could affect how many visa numbers are absorbed by banned-country nationals before September 30.
• USCIS I-485 inventory updates: USCIS publishes periodic snapshots of pending I-485 applications. A decrease in the India EB-2 inventory would directly accelerate date movement.