When is the October 2026 visa bulletin released?

The October 2026 visa bulletin is typically released in mid-September 2026 — usually the second or third week of September. The Department of State publishes it before the start of the new fiscal year on October 1, 2026. This is the most anticipated bulletin of the year because it opens FY2027 with a fresh allocation of 140,000 employment-based visa numbers.

What will happen to India EB-2 dates in FY2027?

India EB-2 Final Action Date movement in FY2027 depends primarily on family-based visa spillover. In a pessimistic scenario (less than 10,000 spillover), India EB-2 could advance only 3–6 months for the full year. In a base case (15,000–25,000 spillover), expect 12–18 months of advance. In an optimistic scenario with 30,000+ spillover (like FY2022), dates could advance 24–36 months or more.

What is family-based visa spillover and why does it matter for EB green cards?

Family-based visa spillover occurs when unused family-based visa numbers are transferred to employment-based categories at the end of the fiscal year. The annual EB cap of 140,000 can effectively be increased by 10,000 to 50,000+ additional visas in years when family-based demand falls short. For India EB applicants, spillover is the single biggest swing factor determining how much dates advance in any given year.

Will FY2027 be a good year for India EB green cards?

The October 2026 bulletin answered this with a cautious result: India EB-2 Final Action restored to November 1, 2013 after two months unavailable — about 8 months behind the July 2014 peak it held before retrogressing, and below what even the pessimistic pre-release scenario modeled. That's consistent with the bearish signal from strong family-based demand in August and September (which likely limited spillover), only partly offset by USCIS's declining pending inventory. The one clear positive: USCIS confirmed Chart B (Dates for Filing) for October, letting more applicants file than Final Action alone allows. FY2027 is opening cautiously, not aggressively.

October 2026 Visa Bulletin & FY2027 Predictions: Will India EB-2 Dates Advance?

The Starting Point

Where India EB Stands Entering FY2027

FY2027 begins October 1, 2026. As of the September 2026 visa bulletin, India EB-2's Final Action Date remains unavailable — no date at all — for a second straight month, after sitting at July 15, 2014 as recently as this spring. India EB-3 (January 1, 2014) still sits ahead of EB-2, an inversion that has now held for two consecutive bulletins. China EB-2 and EB-3 stand at September 1, 2021 and January 1, 2022. Every India EB category represents more than a decade of backlog.

Two straight months of "unavailable" is itself a FY2027 signal. India EB-2 staying unavailable through both August and September confirms the year's numbers for that category are exhausted, not a one-month blip — strong employment-based demand meeting a tight supply. The October 2026 bulletin will restore a date with fresh FY2027 numbers; where it restarts is the year's first real data point. We break down how spillover shapes that restart in FB-to-EB Spillover FY2027 →

The USCIS I-485 pending inventory data shows approximately 1.1 million employment-based cases pending, with India EB-2 and EB-3 representing the overwhelming majority of the backlog by volume. At current annual visa number availability (roughly 9,800 per country for EB categories), clearing the India backlog through normal attrition would take generations.

No realistic FY2027 scenario clears the India backlog. FY2027 predictions are about how many months the Final Action Date might advance — not about clearing the queue. Applicants with 2014–2018 priority dates will be the most interested in where the October 2026 bulletin starts FY2027 and how far dates move through the year.

The Key Variables

What Actually Determines How Much Dates Advance

Visa date movement in any fiscal year is determined by the interaction of four variables. Understanding them explains why predictions are inherently uncertain:

Variable	FY2027 Outlook
Annual EB visa allocation (140,000 total)	Fixed by statute — unchanged unless Congress acts
Per-country limit (7% of total = ~9,800)	Fixed — India and China capped at same level as all other countries despite far higher demand
Family-based visa spillover to EB	Key wildcard — varies 10,000–30,000+ annually based on family demand
USCIS adjudication pace	Varies by staffing, policy priorities, and backlog composition

      Spillover is the biggest swing factor year to year. When family-based visa demand falls short of the annual cap, unused numbers spill over to employment-based categories. In years with large spillover (20,000+ extra visas), India EB dates can advance significantly. In years with low spillover, movement is constrained. The spillover number is not known until USCIS and the State Department work through the year.
    

FY2027 Scenarios

Pessimistic, Base, and Optimistic Cases

Given the variables above, here are three plausible FY2027 scenarios for India EB-2 Final Action Date movement:

Scenario	Assumed Spillover	Expected Advance (India EB-2)	What Would Cause It
Pessimistic	< 10,000	3–6 months of advance for the full year	High family-based demand, low spillover; policy slowdowns at USCIS
Base case	15,000–25,000	12–18 months of advance	Normal spillover, steady USCIS pace, no major retrogression
Optimistic	30,000+	24–36+ months of advance	Low family demand + aggressive USCIS adjudication like FY2022

These are not predictions — they are scenarios. Anyone claiming to know precisely where India EB-2 will end up at the end of FY2027 is overstating what the data can tell us. Visa bulletin movements have historically surprised even seasoned immigration attorneys in both directions.

Two data points cut in opposite directions. The sharp family-based advances in August and September 2026 (detailed below) point toward strong FB demand eating into the FY2026 allocation — bearish for spillover. But USCIS's own inventory data tells a more encouraging story: India EB-2 and EB-3 pending cases have both declined since peaking in June 2026, and China EB-2/EB-3 have fallen every month since April (see "What to Watch" below for the numbers) — real evidence USCIS is working through the backlog faster than the bulletin's frozen dates suggest. Net effect: still probably favors the pessimistic-to-base range over the optimistic case, but less lopsidedly than the FB signal alone would imply.

Update — the October 2026 bulletin is out, and it landed below all three scenarios above. None of them anticipated the actual FY2026 exit: India EB-2 didn't close out around mid-2014 as every scenario assumed — it went fully unavailable for August and September. October restored a date, but at November 1, 2013, roughly 8 months behind the July 2014 peak the category held as recently as spring. That's a worse starting point for FY2027 than even the pessimistic case modeled, though it's still meaningfully better than another month of no date at all. The one clear positive: USCIS confirmed Chart B (Dates for Filing) for October, letting more applicants file than Final Action alone would suggest. Full breakdown: October 2026 Visa Bulletin →

Policy Risks

Trump Administration Policies and the FY2027 Outlook

The Trump administration's immigration enforcement posture introduces additional uncertainty for FY2027 beyond the normal visa number mechanics:

Potential H-1B restrictions: Any policy changes limiting H-1B sponsorship or filing could reduce the pipeline of new I-140 filings — but would not significantly affect the existing backlog of I-485 pending cases, which are already filed.
USCIS staffing and prioritization: Executive branch priorities can influence USCIS adjudication rates. If EB adjudications are deprioritized in favor of enforcement activities, approval rates could slow and fewer visa numbers would be used — potentially causing forward date movement to stall.
Per-country limit legislation: Bills to eliminate per-country limits (like the EAGLE Act) remain a perennial topic. If such legislation passed, it would fundamentally restructure the India EB backlog — but as of early 2026, no such legislation has advanced in the current Congress.
"Gold Card" visa program: The administration's proposed EB-5-style investor visa program, if implemented with a large visa allocation, could reduce visa numbers available for EB-1/2/3 categories through competition for the overall EB cap. See our analysis at EB-5 vs. Trump Gold Card.

Policy changes can move faster than visa bulletins. A significant executive action or regulatory change can affect visa availability within a single fiscal year. Applicants should monitor immigration news closely through FY2027 — particularly in Q1 (October–December 2026) when FY2027 visa number allocations first become visible in the bulletin.

What to Watch

Key Signals for the FY2027 Trajectory

Rather than trying to predict exact dates, experienced observers watch a set of early signals that reveal how FY2027 will unfold:

The October 2026 visa bulletin — released, and resolved: India EB-2 Final Action restored to November 1, 2013, after two months unavailable. That's a cautious, below-expectations opening — 8 months behind the pre-retrogression peak — signaling the State Department isn't yet confident enough to open FY2027 aggressively.
USCIS I-485 pending inventory — partially resolved: Data through August 2026 shows India EB-2 pending cases peaked at 30,305 in June and fell to 27,736 by August (−8.5%), with India EB-3 following the same peak-and-decline pattern. China EB-2 and EB-3 have declined every month since April, down 16% and 23% respectively. That's USCIS visibly working through the backlog even while India EB-2's Final Action Date sat unavailable — a genuine positive counterweight to the family-based demand signal above. The Q1 FY2027 inventory reports (October–December) will show whether that pace holds once fresh visa numbers are flowing.
Family-based demand through FY2026 end — now resolved: August and September delivered unusually large family preference advances across the board — F1 advanced roughly 23 months combined over the two bulletins, F2B about 21 months, F3 about 30 months, and F4 about 33 months (India's F4 was the exception, holding flat at November 2006 both months). Advancing this fast signals strong family-based demand consuming FY2026's allocation — which points toward more limited EB spillover for FY2027 than the optimistic scenario assumes.
EB-1 demand from India: EB-1 India is currently unlimited (date is "C" — current) because demand has been moderate. If EB-1 India demand surges — as can happen when companies sponsor more extraordinary ability or multinational manager petitions — it can crowd out some of the overall India EB allocation.

The most reliable resource for real-time tracking is the monthly visa bulletin from the Department of State and the USCIS processing data published monthly. This tracker updates automatically with each new bulletin.

October 2026 Bulletin

When Does the October 2026 Visa Bulletin Come Out?

The October 2026 visa bulletin is released in mid-September 2026 — typically the second or third week of September. The Department of State publishes it before October 1, the start of the new fiscal year.

This is the most important bulletin of the year for EB applicants. On October 1, USCIS and the State Department get a fresh allocation of 140,000 employment-based visa numbers. Any unused numbers from FY2026 do not carry over — each fiscal year starts from zero.

      What October 2026 actually showed: India EB-2 Final Action restored to November 1, 2013 — real progress after two months unavailable, but about 8 months behind the July 2014 date the category held before retrogressing. A cautious opening, not the confident jump a stronger FY2027 would need. USCIS did confirm Chart B (Dates for Filing) for October, which helps applicants file even though Final Action lags.
    

For the full category-by-category breakdown: October 2026 Visa Bulletin →. For how this compares to the scenarios modeled before release: October 2026 Visa Bulletin Preview →

Understand the Mechanics Behind These Predictions

FB-to-EB Spillover FY2027: How Much Will EB Get? — a forecast of the exact swing factor, with low/base/high ranges and what each means for India EB-2 and EB-3
How Family-Based Visa Spillover Affects EB Wait Times — the single biggest swing factor in any FY2027 scenario, explained in full
October 2026 Visa Bulletin Preview — historical October patterns, three FY2027 scenarios, and what to watch when the bulletin drops
Why Is the Visa Bulletin Release Date So Inconsistent? — October 2026 came out just 2 days before the fiscal year started, the latest release in at least 8 years
How the Visa Bulletin Works — if you're new to reading Final Action Dates and Filing Dates, start here

Track the FY2027 bulletin as it unfolds

See your current priority date status, queue position, and what the current burn rate suggests about your timeline.

Check My Priority Date →

Disclaimer

This article contains analysis based on publicly available data as of October 2026, including the actual October 2026 bulletin outcome. Visa bulletin projections are inherently uncertain. Nothing in this article constitutes legal advice or a guarantee of future visa number availability. Consult a qualified immigration attorney for advice specific to your situation.

FY2027 Visa Number Predictions: What the October 2026 Bulletin Will Signal