The October 2026 Bulletin Is Out — Here's What Happened
India EB-2 Final Action restored to November 1, 2013 after two months unavailable — landing below every scenario modeled in this article, including the pessimistic one. The scenarios below assumed FY2026 would close somewhere in the July–December 2014 range; instead it retrogressed fully to unavailable, so October restarted from a lower floor than any of the three cases anticipated. The one genuine positive: USCIS confirmed Chart B (Dates for Filing) for October, for both EB and FB, up from September's Chart A. Full category-by-category breakdown: October 2026 Visa Bulletin →
The analysis below is preserved as originally published, for anyone comparing the pre-release scenarios to the actual outcome.
The Most Watched Bulletin of the Year
The U.S. fiscal year runs October 1 through September 30. On October 1, 2026, a fresh allocation of 140,000 employment-based visa numbers becomes available. The October 2026 visa bulletin — published in mid-September 2026 — is the first document to show how the State Department plans to distribute those numbers.
For India EB-2 and EB-3 applicants, October sets the tone for all of FY2027. A large forward jump in the October bulletin signals the State Department is optimistic about visa availability and is ready to work through the backlog. A flat or retrograded October signals caution — either limited spillover from FY2026's family-based usage or concerns about demand outpacing supply.
What Past October Bulletins Tell Us
October bulletins have varied enormously in recent years. The pattern is driven primarily by how much family-based demand consumed spillover in the prior fiscal year and how aggressively USCIS adjudicated EB cases through Q4.
| Fiscal Year | October Bulletin Character | India EB-2 Movement | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 (Oct 2021) | Very aggressive | ~2-year jump in single bulletin | Exceptional FB spillover, pent-up USCIS capacity |
| FY2023 (Oct 2022) | Moderate | Several months advance | Moderate spillover after heavy FY2022 usage |
| FY2024 (Oct 2023) | Cautious | Modest advance with mid-year retrogression | Tighter FB spillover, demand uncertainty |
| FY2025 (Oct 2024) | Flat to moderate | Limited, with later correction | High FB demand reduced available spillover |
| FY2026 (Oct 2025) | Moderate | Gradual advance through year | Balanced FB demand, steady USCIS pace |
The FY2022 experience — where India EB-2 advanced nearly two years in October alone — was exceptional and driven by pandemic-era backlogs clearing simultaneously with high spillover. A repeat is unlikely but not impossible if FY2026 family-based demand comes in significantly below cap.
What Will Shape the October 2026 Bulletin
Three measurable factors will determine how aggressive the October 2026 bulletin can be. All three become visible before October 1, 2026:
1. Family-based demand through Q4 FY2026 (July–September 2026) — now resolved
The August and September 2026 bulletins answered this, and the answer leans bearish for EB spillover. Family preference dates advanced sharply and broadly across the two bulletins combined: F1 moved forward roughly 23 months, F2A about 19 months, F2B about 21 months, F3 about 30 months, and F4 about 33 months (India's F4 was the one exception, holding flat at November 2006 throughout). Advancing this fast and this consistently signals strong family-based demand working through the FY2026 allocation — which, under the framework above, points toward less spillover being available for EB in FY2027, not more.
2. India EB-2 Final Action Date entering October 2026
The baseline has moved sharply since spring and hasn't recovered. As of the September 2026 bulletin, India EB-2 remains unavailable (no date) for a second consecutive month — down from July 15, 2014 as recently as May. India EB-3 (January 1, 2014) still sits ahead of EB-2, an inversion now in its second straight bulletin. This means October is starting from a restoration, not an advance: the first question is simply where a fresh FY2027 date reappears. A restart at or above mid-2014 would recover the ground lost this summer; a deeper-2013 restart signals a cautious year — and would be consistent with the strong FB demand observed above. For how spillover shapes that restart, see FB-to-EB Spillover FY2027 →
3. USCIS India EB-2 pending inventory at FY2026 close — largely resolved
Inventory data through August 2026 (the latest available) shows exactly this pattern: India EB-2 pending cases peaked at 30,305 in June 2026 and fell to 27,736 by August — an 8.5% drop in two months. India EB-3 shows the same peak-and-decline shape. China EB-2 and EB-3 have declined every month since April, down 16% and 23% respectively by August. USCIS is visibly working through the queue even while India EB-2's Final Action Date sat unavailable — a real, positive counterweight to the strong family-based demand in factor #1. September's inventory, if published before the bulletin drops, would be the final confirmation, but the trend through August is already a meaningfully encouraging sign for a more aggressive October restart.
Where India EB-2 Could Stand in October 2026
Based on current FY2026 trajectory and historical patterns, here are three plausible ranges for where India EB-2 Final Action Date could be set in the October 2026 bulletin:
| Scenario | Assumed FY2026 End Date | October 2026 Jump | What Would Drive It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pessimistic | July–Sept 2014 | 0–3 months from FY2026 exit | High FB demand consuming spillover; cautious State Dept opening |
| Base case | Sept–Dec 2014 | 3–9 months from FY2026 exit | Moderate spillover, normal USCIS pace |
| Optimistic | Dec 2014–mid-2015 | 9–18+ months from FY2026 exit | Low FB demand, high spillover, strong USCIS throughput in FY2026 Q4 |
The two confirmed signals point in different directions. Strong family-based demand (factor #1) favors the pessimistic and base-case rows. But the accelerating decline in India and China pending inventory (factor #3) is a real positive counterweight — the kind of signal that has historically preceded more aggressive October restarts. Net lean is still toward the base case over optimistic, but this is a genuinely closer call than the family-based signal alone would suggest.
The October 2026 Bulletin: What Each Signal Actually Showed
The October 2026 visa bulletin was published September 29, 2026 — later than the usual mid-September timing, and right as the checklist below was designed to answer:
- India EB-2 Final Action Date: Restored from unavailable to November 1, 2013 — real progress, but about 8 months behind the July 2014 date it held before retrogressing.
- India EB-2 Filing Date: Jan 15, 2015, and USCIS confirmed Chart B — applicants with priority dates before that can file I-485 and start their EAD/AP clock even though Final Action hasn't caught up.
- India EB-3 Final Action Date: Jan 1, 2014 — unchanged from September, still sitting ahead of EB-2.
- EB-1 India: Advanced to Feb 1, 2023 (from Oct 15, 2022) — continued steady movement, no sign of the demand surge that would crowd out other India EB categories.
- China EB-2 and EB-3: China EB-2 advanced one month to Oct 1, 2021; China EB-3 was effectively flat at Jan 8, 2022. Modest movement, consistent with India's cautious restart.
Enter your priority date to see exactly where you stand against these October 2026 numbers.
For a deeper analysis of all factors shaping FY2027, see: FY2027 Visa Number Predictions →
Track the October 2026 bulletin as it unfolds
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Check My Priority Date →This article contains analysis based on publicly available data as of October 2026, including the actual October 2026 bulletin outcome. Visa bulletin movements are inherently unpredictable. Nothing in this article constitutes legal advice or a guarantee of future visa number availability. Consult a qualified immigration attorney for advice specific to your situation.