Why India and China EB Dates Barely Moved — Despite the Spillover Hype

Four Reasons, in Order of How Much They Matter

1. The spillover hasn't been counted yet. The October bulletin was calculated from demand received by September 4 — nearly four weeks before FY2026 ended — and still lists the employment-based limit at the statutory floor. Whatever spillover exists isn't in these dates.
2. Rest of World is out of room. By one estimate, India's biggest source of EB-2 visas in FY2026 was Rest of World numbers that went unused. In October, Rest of World EB-2 and EB-3 both retrogressed. When Rest of World can't use its own numbers fast enough to stay current, nothing flows sideways to India or China.
3. Spillover is split under the same per-country rules. A bigger total raises India's 7% share only in proportion. It doesn't send extra numbers to India first.
4. The first quarter is capped by law. Employment-based usage can't exceed 27% of the annual limit in each of the first three quarters, so October almost always opens cautiously.

A Full Year of Movement: October 2025 vs. October 2026

Comparing the first bulletin of FY2026 to the first bulletin of FY2027 shows the gap clearly. Final Action dates:

Over the full fiscal year, Rest of World moved more than a year in both EB-2 and EB-3. India EB-2 netted seven months and India EB-3 about four — even though India EB-2 briefly reached July 15, 2014 in the spring before retrogressing. China fared somewhat better than India, particularly in EB-3.

Source: Department of State Visa Bulletins for October 2025 and October 2026, Final Action Dates charts.

The Spillover Hasn't Been Counted Yet

Under INA Section 201, the employment-based limit for a fiscal year is 140,000 plus any family-based numbers that went unused in the previous fiscal year. So the FY2027 employment-based limit depends on how many family-based numbers went unused in FY2026 — which ended on September 30, 2026.

The October 2026 bulletin says its allocations were made "for demand received by September 4th." It describes the employment-based worldwide level as "at least 140,000," and sets the per-country limit at 25,620 — exactly 7% of 366,000, which is the 226,000 family-based minimum plus the 140,000 employment-based minimum. In other words, October's dates were set against the statutory floor, not against a final number that includes spillover.

How big will the spillover be? Nobody outside the government knows yet. Third-party analysts at GreenCardClock estimate FY2026's employment-based pool at roughly 186,000 (about 46,000 of it family-based spillover) and project FY2027's spillover could be larger — but they describe their own confidence in that projection as low, and the official figure hasn't been published.

Rest of World Ran Out of Room — and That's India's Biggest Source of Extra Visas

This is the part most spillover discussions skip. Under INA Section 202(a)(5), if total demand in an employment-based category is lower than the numbers available, the per-country limit stops applying to the leftovers. Those "otherwise unused" numbers then go to the oldest priority dates regardless of country — which, in EB-2 and EB-3, means India and China. This is often called lateral or horizontal spillover.

It matters far more for India than direct family-based spillover does. GreenCardClock's estimate of India's FY2026 EB-2 numbers breaks down roughly like this:

Estimates by GreenCardClock; the State Department does not publish per-country issuance counts in real time.

If those estimates are even roughly right, the Rest of World leftovers were worth about six times more to India EB-2 than the spillover's direct lift. And our own bulletin data shows that mechanism playing out month by month in 2026:

In April 2026, the State Department made Rest of World EB-2 current — a signal it projected more EB-2 numbers than Rest of World applicants could use — and in the same bulletin India EB-2 jumped ten months. That's consistent with leftover numbers being redirected to India's older priority dates. By late May, the State Department announced India had used up its FY2026 EB-2 numbers, and India EB-2 went unavailable from the July bulletin through September.

This also challenges the more optimistic FY2027 projections. GreenCardClock's forecast of 10,000–12,000 India EB-2 visas for FY2027 assumes Rest of World redistribution stays near FY2026 levels. One bulletin isn't a trend, and Rest of World demand could soften later in the year — but October is early evidence against that assumption.

Spillover Is Split Under the Same Per-Country Rules

When family-based spillover raises the employment-based limit, it doesn't create a separate pool for backlogged countries. The extra numbers are divided across EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 (28.6% each) and EB-4 and EB-5 (7.1% each), exactly like the base 140,000. The per-country limit is 7% of the combined family-based and employment-based total, so it rises too — but only in proportion.

A larger pie gives India a somewhat larger slice, not a disproportionate one. That's why the "extra share" row in the table above is roughly 920 visas, not tens of thousands. The spillover that analysts talk about in the tens of thousands mostly benefits whoever can use it first under the per-country rules — which is Rest of World applicants, until they run out of demand.

The First Quarter Is Capped by Law

INA Section 201(a)(2) limits employment-based visa usage to 27% of the annual limit in each of the first three quarters of the fiscal year. The cap applies to employment-based categories as a whole, not to each category or country, and it lifts in the fourth quarter.

At the 140,000 floor, that's about 37,800 visas for October through December across every employment-based category and country. With that ceiling — and without the final annual number yet — the State Department has little room to open the year aggressively, and it explicitly cited "quarterly and annual limits" in October's retrogression note.

The Lawsuit, the 75-Country Pause, and the Consulate Closures

These are real developments, and all three are shaping FY2027 — but mostly by changing how big the spillover will be, not by explaining October's dates.

The 75-country immigrant visa pause (January 21 – August 21, 2026). The State Department stopped issuing immigrant visas to nationals of 75 countries on public charge grounds. India and China were not on the list. Because most family-based immigrants process through consulates, the pause likely reduced family-based issuance for those nationals — a big part of why many expected a large spillover into FY2027. But notice what the State Department did in response: family-based Final Action dates for most countries advanced dramatically in August and September 2026 — F1 by about 23 months, F3 by about 30, and F4 by about 33 across the two bulletins (India F4 was the exception, holding flat). One reasonable reading is that it advanced dates to bring in applicants from other countries and use those numbers, rather than let them go unused. If so, the eventual spillover could be smaller than the pause alone would suggest. We won't know until the official FY2027 employment-based limit is published.

The lawsuit. On August 21, 2026, a federal court vacated the 75-country pause in CLINIC v. Rubio. Applicants refused under the pause — reportedly more than 74,000 cases — may now re-enter the queue. Those are mostly family-based consular cases, so they'd draw on family-based numbers in FY2027, and the uncertainty is a plausible reason for the State Department to stay conservative. It hasn't said so, though.

The worldwide consular interview pause (from August 25, 2026). Consulates paused immigrant visa interviews worldwide for public charge training, affecting an estimated 200,000 applicants, with no end date announced. Two things to know if you're in India's EB backlog:

• Most India EB-2 and EB-3 applicants adjust status with USCIS inside the U.S., which isn't affected by a consular interview pause.
• Timing matters. The pause may have left some FY2026 family-based numbers unused in its final five weeks, which would add to the FY2027 spillover. But if it continues well into FY2027, family-based numbers left unused this year would spill into FY2028's employment-based limit — not FY2027's.

Signals That Would Change the Picture

• The official FY2027 employment-based limit. This is the real spillover number. Until it's published, every projection — optimistic or pessimistic — is an estimate.
• Rest of World EB-2 and EB-3. If they move back toward current, that's the leading indicator that leftover numbers could flow to India and China again, the way they did in April 2026.
• The January–April bulletins. Last fiscal year, India's biggest movement came in April, not October.
• USCIS pending inventory. India EB-2 pending cases fell from 30,305 in June 2026 to 27,736 in August. A continued decline means less demand competing for each number. See how the inventory works →
• Whether the consular interview pause ends, and how the State Department handles cases refused under the 75-country pause.

If You're in the India or China Backlog

• You may be able to file now even if Final Action didn't move. USCIS is accepting the Dates for Filing chart (Chart B) for October 2026. India EB-2 and EB-3 Dates for Filing are January 15, 2015 — well ahead of Final Action. Filing an I-485 gets you an EAD, advance parole, and AC21 portability while you wait.
• Don't read October as the year's verdict. The first bulletin is set before the spillover is known and under a quarterly cap. Last year's biggest India movement came six months later.
• Watch Rest of World, not just India. For India EB-2 and EB-3, Rest of World demand is the swing factor that the spillover headlines miss.

For the full October breakdown: October 2026 Visa Bulletin →. For how big the family-based spillover itself might be: FB-to-EB Spillover FY2027 →. For the scenarios we modeled before October: FY2027 Visa Number Predictions →

Where These Numbers Come From

• U.S. Department of State, Visa Bulletins for October 2025 and October 2026, and monthly bulletins January–September 2026
• INA §201 and §201(a)(2), 8 U.S.C. §1151; INA §202(a)(5), 8 U.S.C. §1152
• USCIS, Employment-Based Adjustment of Status FAQs (quarterly limits)
• GreenCardClock, EB-2 India in FY2026 (third-party estimates)
• Ogletree, India Per-Country Limit Reached in the EB-2 Category for FY 2026
• NILC, CLINIC v. Rubio; NAFSA, DOS Pauses Immigrant Visa Issuance for Nationals of 75 Countries
• Ogletree, State Department Pauses Immigrant Visa Interviews for New Public Charge Guidance Training