How much family-based spillover will employment-based get in FY2027?

The exact FY2027 spillover figure is not known until the State Department finalizes FY2026 family-based visa usage after September 30, 2026. Based on recent non-pandemic years, a realistic range is roughly 10,000 to 30,000 additional employment-based numbers. The pandemic-era spillover of 50,000+ seen in FY2022 was exceptional and is unlikely to repeat absent another consular shutdown. The October 2026 bulletin is the first place this shows up in visible date movement.

Does India EB-2 being unavailable in FY2026 mean spillover was low?

Not directly. India EB-2 going unavailable in July and August 2026 means the employment-based demand exhausted the FY2026 numbers available to that category — an EB-side demand signal. Spillover for FY2027 depends on whether family-based categories underused their numbers in FY2026, which is a separate, family-side question. Strong EB demand (shown by the retrogression) is actually good news for FY2027 in one sense: it means any spillover that arrives will be fully absorbed and converted into date movement rather than sitting unused.

Will spillover help India EB-3 in FY2027?

Spillover flows first to EB-1, then EB-2, then EB-3. In FY2026, India EB-3 (January 1, 2014) actually sits ahead of India EB-2 (unavailable) — an inversion that has driven some applicants to consider EB-3 downgrades. Whether EB-3 benefits from FY2027 spillover depends on how much reaches the third preference after EB-1 and EB-2 demand is satisfied. In high-spillover years, both categories advance; in low-spillover years, EB-3 movement is limited.

FB-to-EB Spillover FY2027: How Much Will Employment-Based Get?

Q: When will the FY2027 spillover amount be known?

The family-based undersubscription that feeds FY2027 spillover is determined by visa usage through the end of FY2026 on September 30, 2026. The first visible signal is the October 2026 visa bulletin, released in mid-September 2026. A large forward jump for India EB-2 in October indicates the State Department expects healthy spillover; a conservative or unavailable start signals a tight year.

Why This Matters Now

The One Number That Decides FY2027

For India and China employment-based applicants, the amount of family-based visa spillover into the employment-based pool is the difference between a year of meaningful date movement and a year of near-stagnation. It swings the effective India EB allocation by 3–5x depending on how much family-based demand falls short of its annual cap.

What makes mid-2026 different from a typical off-season is that the FY2027 spillover amount is being determined right now. Family-based undersubscription is measured through the end of FY2026 on September 30, 2026 — so the family preference numbers being used (or not used) this summer directly set the size of the pool that employment-based categories inherit in October.

India EB-2 is currently unavailable. As of the August 2026 bulletin, India EB-2's Final Action Date shows "U" (unavailable) — no date at all — after retrogressing from July 15, 2014 back in the spring. That is a loud year-end signal, and it shapes how to read the FY2027 spillover picture. We break down exactly what it means below.

The Mechanic in 60 Seconds

How Family-Based Numbers Become Employment-Based Visas

Each fiscal year, the employment-based worldwide limit starts at 140,000. When family-sponsored categories (F1, F2A, F2B, F3, F4) do not use all of their numbers in a given year, the unused amount is added to the following year's employment-based pool. The reverse also happens — unused EB numbers roll to family-based — but because India and China EB demand vastly exceeds supply, the flow that matters for backlogged applicants is almost always family → employment.

Because per-country limits apply to the combined pool, and because India and China are the only countries consistently pinned at their per-country caps, essentially every spillover number that reaches EB-2 or EB-3 flows straight to India and China applicants.

This is a forecast piece, not an explainer. If you want the full step-by-step mechanics — the two-stage undersubscription flow, the EB-1 → EB-2 → EB-3 waterfall, and the year-by-year history — read How Family-Based Visa Spillover Affects EB Wait Times first, then come back here for the FY2027-specific outlook.

Reading the Signals

What Late-FY2026 Is Telling Us

You cannot know a fiscal year's total spillover until it ends, but the final-quarter bulletins leak the direction. Here is what the current data shows heading into the FY2027 reset:

Signal	Current Reading (Aug 2026)	What It Suggests
India EB-2 Final Action Date	Unavailable (was 2014-07-15 in April)	FY2026 EB-2 numbers for India are exhausted — strong EB demand, tight supply at year-end
India EB-3 Final Action Date	Jan 1, 2014 — ahead of EB-2	The EB-2/EB-3 inversion persists; EB-3 downgrade interest is elevated
China EB-2 / EB-3	Sep 1, 2021 / Jan 1, 2022	China moving but also constrained; competes with India for the same spillover
EB-1 India / China	Oct 15, 2022 / Jul 1, 2023	EB-1 demand is real — first claim on any spillover before it reaches EB-2

The critical nuance many predictions get wrong: India EB-2 going unavailable does not by itself mean FY2027 spillover will be low. The retrogression is an employment-side demand signal — it tells you EB-2 applicants used up the numbers available to them in FY2026. The spillover that feeds FY2027 comes from the family-side question of whether F-categories underused their numbers. Those are two different meters.

      The silver lining in a retrogression: strong employment-based demand means any spillover that does arrive in FY2027 will be fully absorbed and converted into forward date movement — not left on the table. A category running hot at year-end is exactly the category positioned to consume a fresh October allocation quickly.
    

The Forecast

How Much Spillover Is Realistic for FY2027?

The State Department does not publish a single "spillover total." The amount is inferred after the fact by comparing the EB cap against actual issuances. Setting pandemic distortions aside, here are the plausible FY2027 bands and what each would do to India EB-2's post-reset trajectory:

Scenario	Est. FB→EB Spillover	India EB-2 Full-Year Outlook	What Would Cause It
Low	< 10,000	Restart at a conservative 2013 date; 3–6 months of advance for the year	Family-based demand recovers fully; EB-1 surge absorbs the spillover early
Base	15,000–25,000	Restart near the pre-retrogression 2014 dates; 12–18 months of advance	Normal family undersubscription; steady USCIS adjudication
High	30,000+	Restart at 2014 and push into 2015+; 24+ months of advance	Family demand stays soft; low EB-1 competition; aggressive adjudication

The FY2022 caveat. The ~50,000+ spillover that advanced India EB-2 by nearly two years in a single October bulletin was a pandemic artifact — consular shutdowns left family-based numbers massively unused. Absent another shock on that scale, FY2027 is far more likely to land in the low-to-base range than to repeat FY2022. Treat anyone promising a FY2022-style jump with skepticism.

By Category

What Each Scenario Means for Your Case

India EB-2: The October 2026 bulletin will restore a date (fresh FY2027 numbers always do). The question is where it restarts. A base-case year likely brings it back toward the 2014 range it held before the spring retrogression; a low-spillover year restarts more conservatively in 2013 and crawls.
India EB-3: Currently ahead of EB-2 at January 1, 2014. Spillover reaches EB-3 only after EB-1 and EB-2 demand is met, so EB-3 tends to benefit in base-and-above years. If you are weighing an EB-3/EB-2 interfiling decision, the relative position of the two dates in the October bulletin is the data point to wait for.
China EB-2/EB-3: China competes with India for the same spillover pool. In high-spillover years both countries advance; in tight years, movement is rationed and China's steadier demand profile sometimes fares slightly better month to month.
EB-1 (India/China): EB-1 has the first claim on spillover. A surge in EB-1 demand — more multinational-manager or extraordinary-ability filings — can quietly drain the pool before it ever reaches EB-2, which is why EB-1 India/China dates are worth watching as a leading indicator.

When You'll Know

The October 2026 Bulletin Is the Reveal

The October 2026 visa bulletin — released in mid-September 2026, ahead of the October 1 start of FY2027 — is the first place the spillover picture becomes visible in real date movement. Three things to check the moment it drops:

Where India EB-2 restarts. Any date at all is a restoration from "unavailable." A restart in mid-2014 or later signals the State Department expects healthy numbers; a restart deep in 2013 signals caution.
The size of the single-bulletin jump. Compare October's Final Action Date to where September 2026 ended. A jump of more than 6 months for India EB-2 in one step is a strong positive signal for the year.
The family-preference rows through summer. If F1–F4 dates were flat or barely moving in the July–September 2026 bulletins, it points to high family demand and thinner spillover. If they jumped or went Current, undersubscription — and more spillover — is likely.

This tracker updates automatically with each new bulletin, so you can see exactly where your priority date lands the day the October numbers publish.

Go Deeper on FY2027

How Family-Based Visa Spillover Affects EB Wait Times — the full mechanics and year-by-year history behind this forecast
FY2027 Visa Number Predictions — the broader India EB-2 date scenarios and policy risks for the year ahead
October 2026 Visa Bulletin Preview — what history says about October bulletins and what to watch when it drops

See where your priority date lands

Check your current queue position, bulletin status, and projection scenarios — and watch it update the moment the October 2026 bulletin publishes.

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Disclaimer

This article contains analysis based on publicly available data as of August 2026. Spillover estimates are approximations — the State Department does not publish official spillover totals, and visa bulletin projections are inherently uncertain. Nothing here constitutes legal advice or a guarantee of future visa number availability. Consult a qualified immigration attorney for advice specific to your situation.